Q1 2026 revenue landed at $399 million, up 684% year over year. The AI segment alone did $390 million, up 841%. NBIS opened double digits higher. As of this morning the position sits at +19.08% on the day and +107.0% lifetime.

The decision tree from Part 1 fires the beat-and-raise branch. The position holds.

Receipts. I called NBIS sub-$100 in February. Part 1 called the hold into the print. The print just paid both.

The numbers from the release.

Group revenue $399 million. Up 684% year over year. Up 75% from Q4 2025.

Nebius AI segment $390 million. Up 841% year over year. Adjusted EBITDA margin on the segment expanded to 45%, up from 24% in Q4.

Net income from continuing operations $621 million. The $781 million ClickHouse valuation step-up is the non-operating chunk inside that number. Non-cash. One-time. Strip it and the reported headline flips negative. The 45% adjusted EBITDA margin on the AI segment is the durable read. Don’t mistake one-time for recurring.

Operating cash flow $2.3 billion (versus an outflow of $198 million in the year-ago quarter). Customer prepayments drove the swing.

Liquidity at quarter end $9.3 billion in cash and equivalents.

2026 capex guide raised to $20 to $25 billion, up from the prior $16 to $20 billion. Pre-committed customer demand for 2027 capacity is the stated reason.

Pennsylvania site secured. Up to 1.2 GW of power and land, phased delivery starting 250 to 300 MW by end of 2027, full 1.2 GW by 2030. First US-owned facility of this scale on the page.

Backlog still anchored by Meta ($27 billion, five-year) and Microsoft ($19.4 billion). Roughly $50 billion locked.

Part 1 wrote five claims. Run them.

Claim one: the contracted backlog is the floor, not the upside. The print added the Meta partnership structure with optionality on cloud utilization and asset-backed financing. Backlog confirmed. The financing optionality is a new lever I did not size for going in. Receipt logged.

Claim two: capex execution decides whether the back-half ramp connects to the contracted demand. The print did not show a slip. It showed the opposite. Management raised the 2026 capex guide explicitly because 2027 customer demand is over-committing the prior plan. That reads as confirmation, not concern.

Claim three: customer concentration is the structural risk. Two hyperscalers carry the backlog. The print did not name a third hyperscaler. The Meta partnership reframing is a deeper commitment to the existing customer, not a diversification away from it. Part 1 was right to flag concentration. The print did not resolve it.

Claim four: the Eigen acquisition needed call commentary. Volozh’s Q1 shareholder letter delivered it. His words: “Eigen AI strengthens Nebius Token Factory as a managed inference platform for production AI, and adds leading inference research and post-training optimization to our in-house R&D organization.” Two more deals announced in the quarter on top of Eigen: Tavily for agentic search, Clarifai for inference optimization (Matthew Zeiler joins as SVP of Research). The inference layer of the stack got three reinforcements in one quarter. Token Factory is the spine. NBIS is building it.

Claim five: the FY revenue guide of $3.0 to $3.4 billion and ARR exit run-rate of $7 to $9 billion are the back-half load. Both reaffirmed at the Q1 release. Q1 at $399 million inside that arc is consistent with the high end of the FY range. Math holds.

Where Part 1 was wrong. I framed capex burn as the single largest risk and underweighted the financing mechanic that came with the Meta restructure. Asset-backed financing changes the burn profile on a multi-GW buildout. That is a lever I should have pre-modeled. Receipt logged on my own miss.

What is still in question.

Capex is now $20 to $25 billion for 2026. Honestly, that is a bigger number to underwrite than I was modeling 24 hours ago.

EBIT before the AI segment is still a loss-making business in aggregate. The $621 million net income line includes the ClickHouse non-cash step-up. Strip it out and the operating profit picture is messier than the headline.

Customer concentration is unchanged. Meta or Microsoft pulling capacity in-house is the structural kill vector that the print did not retire.

Pennsylvania is announced. Pennsylvania is not built. 250 to 300 MW by end of 2027, full 1.2 GW by 2030. Multi-year buildout against permitting, power, and equipment supply risk.

CoreWeave is the neutral-cloud peer with a different anchor-customer mix. Margin compression risk if pricing competition heats up at the contract-renewal cliff in 2027 to 2028.

Bears get airtime. The print does not retire any of these.

What I am doing.

Holding. No add.

The trim trigger fires at +200% lifetime. Today lifetime is +107%. That leaves 93 percentage points before the rule fires. The discipline rule says position size does not change inside 24 hours of a binary catalyst. The post-print pop is not the entry.

I re-evaluate on a meaningful pullback. Not chasing the gap.

Free: my book. Paid: the notebook.

The Substack stays free. The book stays free. The post you are reading stays free.

Pro launches July 22. The operator notebook is the writing layer. Vestor is the bot layer. Today Vestor watches my book and texts me when the rules fire. In July, Founding 50 members get Vestor on their own books. Not just mine. Yours.

If you want a seat, the waitlist is open. Founding pricing only. No public price posted.

The room I’m in keeps showing me things adults miss. AI needs a physical layer. The print just put it on the page in a font everyone can read.

I’m here.

Real money. Real positions. Real receipts.

Young Bull on Substack

ASTS Q1 2026 landed Monday after close. Revenue $14.7M against $36.6M consensus. 60% miss. EPS minus $0.66 against minus $0.20 expected. Stock closed regular session at $82.55, down roughly 8% in after-hours to the high $70s.

Part 1 said: miss with stock down 10 to 20% triggers the starter-add at $60s, the real-add at $50s. Activation slip to 2027 stops the adds and re-evaluates.

The print fit the miss frame. The price action so far has not fit the 10-to-20% frame. The decision tree’s add zone has not triggered. Position holds at 50 shares.

What management framed.

Q1 revenue came from commercial gateway deliveries and US government program milestones. The FY 2026 guide stayed at $150 to $200 million. The ramp is back-half loaded by structure of the business. Q1 was always going to be small. The size of the gap to consensus is what the market repriced.

The other framing: cash of approximately $3.5 billion as of March 31. Convertible notes priced earlier at $116.30 strike with a 2.25% ten-year coupon. Capex burn is real and the runway is multi-year at the current pace. No imminent raise pressure.

Two new MNO partners announced. TELUS as second Canadian partner. Axiom Telecom for pan-African coverage across 11 countries. Total ecosystem now near 60 global MNO partners covering over 3 billion subscribers. $1.2 billion in contracted commercial revenue.

What did not break.

BlueBird 8, 9, and 10 are on the Falcon 9 manifest for mid-June launch. Cadence intact.

BlueBird 11 through 33 are in advanced assembly. Production capacity supports more than 10 satellites per month.

The 45-satellite year-end target is on the page. Last call’s range was 45 to 60. The midpoint compressed to around 45. That is a real slip from the upside scenario. The floor case is intact.

FCC 248-satellite authorization from April 21 stands. No spectrum loss.

AT&T and Verizon commitments unchanged. The two new MNO partners add diversification. Not replacement.

The kill vectors from the Part 1 ticker file did not fire. No constellation slip past two quarters. No carrier cancellation. No spectrum loss. No emergency raise.

What did shift.

Revenue trajectory got more back-half loaded. The $150 to $200 million FY guide reaffirmed, and with $14.7 million in Q1 on the page, the implied Q2 through Q4 ramp is now steeper than it was on the Q4 2025 call. Two more prints have to land before the FY range is mechanically achievable.

BlueBird year-end target compressed to around 45. A few months ago the upside framing was 60. That upside is off the table for 2026.

Deutsche Bank reportedly trimmed its target ahead of the call on pricing competition concerns. The analyst pushback question I flagged in Part 1 has a data point under it now. Starlink direct-to-cell with T-Mobile is the obvious anchor for that pricing pressure thesis.

The decision tree reckoning.

Part 1 published the framework before the print. Beat and raise: hold, no chase. In-line: do nothing. Miss with 10-20% drop: starter-add $60s, real-add $50s. 2027 activation slip: stop adding, re-evaluate.

The print fit the miss frame on revenue and EPS. The price action so far is at the edge of the 10-to-20% zone and has not crossed inside it. After-hours puts the stock around the high $70s. From the regular close of $82.55, that is roughly 8% down. The trigger fires if the stock prints below roughly $74 from the close. The starter-add zone is the $60s. The real-add zone is the $50s.

Tuesday open is the next data point. If pre-market or the open extends the drop into the $60s, the starter-add framework fires. If the stock stabilizes in the high $70s, the position parks at 50 shares.

I am not adding tonight. I am not panicking tonight. The framework already wrote what to do. The framework decides on Tuesday’s tape. Not on a Monday-night reaction.

Position state as of 2026-05-11 close.

50 shares at $74.04 average cost. $3,702 cost basis. Regular close $82.55, gain +$425.55 / +11.50% lifetime. After the print at the high $70s after-hours, the position drops to roughly the low single digits of unrealized gain. Still profitable. Still Adjacent Tech sleeve. Still not an Anchor and not eligible to become one.

The capital protection rule says I do not sell ASTS to fund a new buy elsewhere. The position holds against thesis-break. Not against opportunity-cost. The framework was written for exactly this kind of print.

What I am watching over the next 60 days.

BlueBird 8, 9, and 10 mid-June launch. Three satellites on Falcon 9. Successful insertion is the next operational test after BB7. A clean mission unlocks the cadence narrative.

Q2 revenue acceleration. The FY $150 to $200 million range demands a meaningful Q2 step-up to keep the implied ramp credible. If Q2 prints below $40 million, the back-half ramp risk re-enters the conversation in a material way.

Starlink direct-to-cell coverage updates. T-Mobile commercial rollout pace. Any pricing tier disclosure changes the carrier-economics conversation.

Capital-raise watch. $3.5 billion cash is a real runway. ASTS history says watch for raises around inflection points. A raise inside the next two quarters would tap the capital-raise-overhang kill vector.

Part 1 published the rules before the print. Part 2 reads the receipt against the rules. The receipt says the miss was real, the stock reaction sat on the edge of the add zone without yet crossing into it, the thesis did not break, and the position parks at 50 shares until the tape moves to the next decision branch.

The framework holds either way.

Real money. Real positions. Real receipts.

Young Bull on Substack

NBIS reports Wednesday before the bell.

Receipt first. 25 sh at $103.05 avg. Yesterday’s close $186.10. Position at +80.59% as of 2026-05-11 close. 8.20% of the book in one name.

I’m holding into the print. Not adding. Not trimming. Not selling. This post is the thesis going in. Part 2 lands Thursday morning with the read.

The discipline is writing the call before the outcome lands.

The position sizing tells the story.

20 shares went in on February 9 around $90 a share. That was the initial entry. The thesis at that point was thin enough. Two contracted hyperscaler backlogs, a Finland datacenter ramping, an Iceland buildout queued, and a price that hadn’t woken up to the $46B forward revenue locked under contract. I sized into the position. Not all-in.

Five shares got added later at a meaningfully higher price. Average cost moved from $90 to $103.05. The add at +50% from initial entry is the conviction-up move. The thesis was catching up to the receipts faster than I’d modeled. Meta signed the $27B expansion in March. Iceland milestones tracked. The capacity-versus-demand gap widened. I sized into the receipt.

25 shares total. 8.20% of book. Anchor weighting on a name that earned the slot.

NBIS is Anchor #2 in the manifesto. Datacenters layer.

The signature line says I buy the raw materials, hardware machines, and power plants that force AI to exist. Datacenter capacity is the hardware machine. Every GPU running every training run has to live somewhere with power, cooling, networking, and rack space. NBIS is one of the few public-equity ways to own that layer directly. CoreWeave is the other major one and sits in the Pivot sleeve. Most neutral-cloud capacity is either private (Crusoe, Lambda) or buried inside hyperscaler P&Ls.

Why Anchor and not Pivot. Two reasons.

Contracted backlog is real. Microsoft at $19.4B over five years. Meta expanded to $27B in March. Around $46B locked, with total contracted backlog approaching $50B for the 2027 to 2031 window. That’s a multiple of the current market cap, signed.

Capacity build is execution-paced. 2026 contracted power forecast raised to over 3 GW. 800 MW to 1 GW of that available by year-end. Nine new data centers globally announced. Capex guide $16 to $20B for 2026, around 60% already covered by cash and operations. The build is happening, not promised.

The neutral-cloud thesis is that the hyperscalers lease before they build, because their own capacity is the constraint and Nebius can move faster on the marginal GW. That part of the thesis gets tested every quarter.

What I’m watching on Wednesday’s call.

Revenue trajectory against the FY guide. Management reaffirmed 2026 full-year revenue of $3 to $3.4B and annualized run-rate of $7 to $9B exiting the year. Consensus for Q1 sits in a wide band, $317M on the low end and $389M on the high end depending on the platform. I care less about hitting either point and more about the Q1-to-FY shape. Q1 plus a Q2 and Q3 ramp has to land inside the FY range. Anything that suggests the back-half ramp is slipping is the signal to recalibrate.

Capacity bookings detail. The $46B in contracted backlog is the floor. New bookings on top are the upside. Microsoft and Meta dominate the existing book. A new named customer at scale reduces concentration risk and validates the neutral-cloud pitch. A blank quarter on new customer wins is not fatal but weakens the multiple.

Capex execution. $16 to $20B is the guide. Q1 will print the first quarter of that pace. Overshooting at this stage is fine. Undershooting is the concern, because it means the buildout slipped. Iceland and the new global sites have to hit milestones or the back-half revenue ramp does not connect to the contracted demand.

Customer concentration commentary. Two hyperscalers carry the backlog. The fair pushback every analyst has raised is what happens if Microsoft renegotiates or Meta brings capacity in-house. I want management framing on diversification, governance on contract terms, and any color on what a third major customer looks like.

The Eigen acquisition. $643M spent. The full operational thesis has not been laid out on a call yet. I want the integration plan and the contribution to capacity or capability.

Pre-written outcomes so the print does not drive a vibes trade.

Beat and raise full-year guide. Stock runs. Hold the 25. No chase. The trim trigger sits at +200% from cost which is $309 a share. The discipline doc has that level in writing. Until it fires, the position runs.

In-line and reaffirm. Stock probably does 5 to 15% in either direction, settles flat in a week. Do nothing. Thesis has not moved.

Miss on revenue but milestones intact. Position holds. The kill vectors are Microsoft cancel, Meta cancel, Finland or Iceland slip, neocloud margin compression. A revenue miss inside a quarter without one of those vectors triggering is noise on a multi-year thesis. If the stock drops 15 to 25% on the miss, I evaluate adding. The buy trigger from the ticker file sat at $85, well below current price. A clean reset would rewrite that level.

Guidance cut on FY revenue. Different problem. Stock drops, thesis weakens, no add. Re-evaluate the trim trigger and the kill vectors against the new guide. If FY guide moves below $2.5B against the prior $3 to $3.4B range, that is a thesis-check moment.

Microsoft or Meta cancellation language on the call. Full-exit kill vector. Position closes per the discipline rule.

The discipline going into the print.

No add pre-earnings. No trim pre-earnings. Holding 25 shares through the call.

The position is sized at 8.20% of book. That is anchor weighting. Adjusting position size in the 24 hours before a binary catalyst is the failure mode the discipline rules are written against. The size is the size. The thesis is the thesis. The response tree is written. The print decides.

Part 2 lands Thursday morning. Revenue against guide. New bookings. Capacity milestones. What I said going in. What actually happened.

The framework holds either way.

Real money. Real positions. Real receipts.

Young Bull on Substack

ASTS reports tomorrow after the close.

Receipt first. 50 sh at $74 avg. Friday’s close $75.05. Position’s breakeven into the print. Options are pricing a 19% move either way.

I’m holding into the report. Not trimming. Not adding. Not selling. This post is the thesis. Part 2 lands tomorrow night or Tuesday morning with the read.

The discipline is writing the call before the outcome lands.

Why Part 1 and Part 2

New format I’m trying.

Pre-print thesis post lands before the bell on earnings day. Post-print reaction lands after the call. You see the gap (or the match) between what I thought and what happened.

Most earnings coverage is post-hoc pattern-matching. Print lands, the writer explains why the print made sense. Honest framework thinking has to commit before the outcome locks in. Otherwise everyone’s a genius on Tuesday.

If Part 2 contradicts Part 1, you’ll see it. That’s the deal.

Where ASTS sits

ASTS is Adjacent Tech. Not Physical Layer.

The manifesto carved this out on 5/5. The signature line says I buy the raw materials, hardware machines, and power plants that force AI to exist. Satellites are a service AI uses. Different test. ASTS lives in the Adjacent Tech sleeve next to RKLB and OUST.

Real high-conviction position. Real long-term tech bet. Real underwater periods (-13.73% three weeks ago). Not an anchor. Can’t be promoted to anchor by definition.

The sleeve line holds because the brand only holds if the lines hold.

Position history

Honestly, this one’s on its fourth life.

Started with 3 shares around $50 a long time ago. Sold 2 above $100 when the trim trigger fired. Sold the last one right under $100 to reinvest into a Physical Layer name. Came back on red days near $80 when direct-to-cell economics looked cleaner than I’d given them credit for.

Then BlueBird 7 failed orbital insertion April 19. Added 10 shares into the bad news. One satellite out of a 60-satellite Block 2 fleet doesn’t break the multi-year thesis. Market reaction was a better entry. Same logic on any speculative position. Buy the fear when the long-term math holds.

Now: 50 sh at $74 avg. Breakeven into Monday’s print. That’s the receipt.

What I’m watching on the call

Three specific things.

Commercial activation timeline. Q4 call guided continuous US service by late 2026. Reaffirm is neutral. Acceleration toward Q3 is bullish. Slip into 2027 weakens the thesis and pauses the add cadence. This is the single biggest catalyst on the call.

BlueBird deployment cadence. Target is 45 to 60 satellites in orbit by end of 2026. BB7 failed orbital insertion on April 19 (New Glenn second-stage thrust shortfall, satellite de-orbiting). That tapped the deployment-slip kill vector once. I want the recovery plan and the next stacked-launch schedule. Block 2 cadence is the bridge from story to revenue.

Capex discipline. Q4 came in at $407M against a $275 to $325M guide. Q1 2026 guide is $350 to $425M. Another big overshoot reads as cash burn risk against the $3.9B pro-forma position. In-line or under reads as discipline returning.

What I do on each outcome

Pre-written so I don’t vibes-trade off the print.

Beat and raise full-year guide. Stock runs. Hold the 50. No chase. Add only on a multi-day pullback inside the move.

In-line and reaffirm. 5 to 15% volatility either direction, settles flat in a week. Do nothing. The thesis hasn’t moved.

Miss or soft guide. Stock drops 10 to 20%. This is the add zone, not the panic zone. $60s is the starter add. $50s is the real add. The buy trigger in the ticker file’s already written at $50. I’m not selling on a guide miss, because the kill vectors are deployment slip and customer cancellation, not a one-quarter revenue print.

Commercial activation slips into 2027. Thesis weakens materially. Stop adding. Re-evaluate within the week. If a second piece of evidence lands (Verizon walks back, capex overshoots again), I trim into strength.

What kills the thesis entirely

Four kill vectors. All written before the position filled.

One: a major carrier walks. Verizon, AT&T, or Vodafone pulling commitment depth.

Two: cash burn forces a dilutive raise inside 12 months, despite the $3.9B. Block 2 cadence costs roughly $1.2B in 2026 cash by analyst math, so the runway is real but not infinite.

Three: two consecutive quarters of capex overshooting guide by 30%+.

Four: satellite deployment slips by more than 6 months. BB7 was a single tap. A second mission failure inside 90 days is the actual signal.

If any of these land cleanly, the position trims or exits per the four-quarter rule.

Why I’m holding in the first place

Q4 2025 was the inflection.

$70.9M full-year revenue against $3.3M the prior year. First real revenue year on the page. Stc Group prepaid $175M on a ten-year regional. $1.2B+ in aggregate contracted commitments. SDA government revenue layering in. FCC granted operations for up to 248 US satellites on April 21. Verizon commercial agreement formalized. Vodafone JV in Europe locked.

The story’s becoming a revenue line in real time. $3.9B in cash gives the runway. Adjacent Tech sleeve, but the receipts are stacking.

The closer

Not hoping it pops. Hoping the print clarifies the trajectory. A dip’s a gift, the buy trigger’s already written. A pop’s fine, the position’s sized right. The framework holds either way.

Part 2 lands tomorrow night or Tuesday morning with the read on what actually happened.

See every position on the live map → young-bull-site.vercel.app/portfolio

Real money. Real positions. Real receipts.

Young Bull · young-bull-site.vercel.app

And I’m not buying it.

Here’s why — and exactly how I’m positioning my $45K portfolio before Monday’s open.The S&P just posted its best week since November. The Dow ripped 1,325 points in a single session. Oil crashed 16% in one candle. CNBC is running “BULL MARKET IS BACK” chyrons.

And I’m not buying it.

Here’s why — and exactly how I’m positioning my $45K portfolio before Monday’s open.

What Actually Happened This Week

On Tuesday, Pakistan’s PM asked Trump to delay strikes on Iran’s power grid. By Wednesday morning, a two-week ceasefire was announced. Markets went vertical.

But here’s what the headlines didn’t tell you:

The Strait of Hormuz is still closed. Iran is limiting ships, charging $1M+ tolls per vessel, and standard shipping lanes remain unused. The US Navy started mine-clearing operations on Friday. That’s not peace — that’s a pause.

Oil is still at $97. Down from $114, but still 45% above pre-war levels. The ceasefire didn’t fix the energy crisis. It just slowed it down.

The ceasefire already started breaking down. Israeli strikes on Lebanon killed hundreds within hours of the announcement. Iran re-closed Hormuz in response. This is a fragile deal held together by diplomatic duct tape.

The market priced in peace. It didn’t get peace. It got a two-week timeout.

My Portfolio This Week: +$4,200

Full receipts, as always.

Winners:

NBIS (Nebius Group) — $90.94 avg → $145.19. +59.6%. This is my biggest winner and it keeps running. $27B Meta deal + $19.4B Microsoft deal = real revenue, not hype.

RKLB (Rocket Lab) — ceasefire rally lifted defense/space names. Neutron first flight approaching.

PANW (Palo Alto Networks) — cybersecurity demand only grows when nations are at war.

Losers (that I’m adding to):

CEG (Constellation Energy) — $310 cost → $285. Still down 7.8%. But the thesis has never been stronger. Three Mile Island restart for Microsoft, 20-year Meta PPA, and the war just proved why nuclear is the only answer for AI data centers.

KTOS (Kratos Defense) — down 23% from my entry. But Valkyrie is a program of record, hypersonic revenue doubling to $400M in 2026. The market is pricing in peace. I’m pricing in reality.

AEHR Earnings (April 7): Beat on EPS (-$0.05 vs -$0.07 est), missed revenue ($10.3M vs $11.06M). Stock dropped 5.67% after hours. BUT — record backlog, raised bookings to high end of $60-80M, and expects profitability by Q4. I didn’t own it going in. I’m watching for a better entry now.

This Week’s Playbook: April 14-18

This is the most important week of the quarter. Here’s why:

Big Bank Earnings Tsunami

Monday: Goldman Sachs — M&A advisory fees expected up 33-41%. If GS beats, it signals deal flow is alive despite the war.

Tuesday: JPMorgan, Citi, Wells Fargo, BofA — JPM EPS expected $5.44 (+7% YoY). Investment banking fees up 18% on AI-driven refinancing wave.

Wednesday: Morgan Stanley — Trading revenue tells us how volatile the market really was.

Thursday: Netflix, J&J — Consumer spending + healthcare — the “everything else” check.

My prediction: Banks beat. Here’s why — 24 mega-deals over $10B closed in Q1, plus a massive debt refinancing wave as corporations fund AI infrastructure. Goldman’s advisory desk has been printing money. If they confirm that, it’s a green light for risk assets.

The Iran Variable

The two-week ceasefire expires around April 22. That means this week, every headline about Hormuz, every Trump tweet about Iran, every oil price tick — it all matters.

If ceasefire holds: Oil drops below $90. S&P pushes toward 7,000. My energy names (CEG, VST) pull back short-term but the long thesis is unchanged.

If ceasefire collapses: Oil back above $110. Defense names (KTOS) rip. Nuclear (CEG, VST) become the only game in town for AI data center power. I’ve positioned for both outcomes.

My 5 Predictions for the Week

1. Goldman Sachs beats revenue estimates by 5%+. The M&A supercycle is real. Advisory fees will shock to the upside.

2. Oil retests $105 by Friday. The ceasefire is already fraying. Hormuz mine-clearing takes weeks, not days. Supply stays constrained.

3. NBIS breaks $155. Meta and Microsoft revenue ramps are accelerating. This stock hasn’t caught up to its fundamentals yet.

4. CEG bounces to $295-300. The guidance miss is priced in. Three Mile Island restart news or any nuclear policy catalyst sends this higher.

5. The rally fades by Thursday. Banks will beat, but forward guidance will be cautious because nobody knows what happens when the ceasefire expires. Expect a “sell the news” move.

The Bigger Picture

Everyone is focused on the ceasefire. I’m focused on what the war already proved:

The grid can’t handle AI. Every hyperscaler learned this quarter that depending on the public grid is a single point of failure. Nuclear isn’t optional anymore. It’s the only scalable, 24/7, war-proof baseload power for data centers.

Supply chains are fragile. 30% of global semiconductor-grade helium was wiped out in one missile strike on Qatar. Onshoring isn’t a talking point anymore — it’s an emergency.

Physical infrastructure wins. While app-layer AI stocks got crushed on risk-off, the companies building the actual pipes, power plants, and cooling systems held up. Because you can’t ChatGPT your way out of a power shortage.

I own the tollbooths. Not the cars.

What I’m Doing Monday

Adding CEG — limit order at $283. Averaging down into the strongest nuclear thesis of the decade.

Adding KTOS — $67 limit. The market is pricing in peace that doesn’t exist yet.

Holding NBIS — letting my winner run. No reason to trim at $145 when the revenue ramp is just starting.

Watching AEHR — post-earnings dip could give me a clean entry under $40. Record backlog + silicon photonics win = long-term compounder.

Cash reserve: Keeping 15% dry for if the ceasefire collapses. Red days build wealth.

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— Quinn | Young Bull